F-35 Numbers Game for the USAF-AFRES-ANG

Even if the USAF has no one to blame but itself for the train-wreck that is todays recapitalization plan of aircraft, it might just pull off a reasonable defense of the U.S. if all of the hype we are led to believe of the F-35 is actually true.

While I doubt that the F-35 will come in on time with a low price, if it has a reasonable amount of firepower and the PowerPoint slides are true, it will be several times more effective than a legacy fighter aircraft.

Given everything else that the USAF has to pay for over the years – tankers, airlift, ISR, space systems, facilities upkeep and yes, fighter aircraft – there just won’t be enough money to go around for everything. It is too late to do much to fix all this. That train left already. A serious debtor U.S. federal budget has to be fixed and it is going to take a very long time.

The fighter force of the USAF has two primary missions – air sovereignty and air expeditionary – known as ASA and AEF.

With the uncertainties of the F-35 price and serious doubt if the USAF can ever buy F-35s up to plan, 48 per year once full rate production kicks in ( 2014 ? 2015 ? 2016 ? ) is all that can be expected.

Not to fear. If you believe in the F-35 capability like Mr. Gates, we can get through this. It will take a different mindset.

To really pull off the F-35 fielding into the USAF, the Fighter Group and not the Fighter Wing will have to be the big money saver. After all, modern logistics methods brought on by the F-35 ( really the F-22 and Super Hornet started it ) , will mean less over-head at the unit level for maintenance. With further reorganizations always on the horizon – the standard hobby of PowerPoint warriors – the F-35 will, in a Fighter Group structure, mean that the maintainer will be part of the flying squadron and so will lot of other maintenance support.

The Fighter Group in this new economic reality will have a high and a low squadron so to speak. 12 aircraft per squadron for a Fighter Group of 24 aircraft. Throw in the usual Security Police squadron, CE, Logistics squadron, A consolidated support squadron with the MPF, Finance and Services, along with a Medical squadron and a Ops squadron and you have an organic Fighter Group that can be run with a Full Colonel.

These Fighter Groups can be blended as needed. This means a Fighter Group could be a mix of active duty, reserve and guard personnel. Some may be all active duty, all reserve or all guard.

Taskings of the two fighter squadrons in the Fighter Group are split right down the middle with half for ASA and half for AEF.

A look at the chart below shows toward the top, 18 ASA locations throughout the U.S. Three of these can be covered by the F-22 (in grey). The rest by the F-35.

Foreign placements reflect the reality of todays threat. Europe doesn’t count for having a permanent base. Stateside USAF/AFRES/ANG fighters would always deploy there as part of exercises. The Pacific is where any money should go toward foreign basing of the F-35. Guam is especially handy because it can pitch in where needed. Guam, Kunsan and Misawa would also be deployment sites for stateside USAF/AFRES/ANG F-35s.

Given that there are going to be several partner nations using the F-35 (so we are told) the total number of F-35s for the USAF isn’t really all that small. A grand coalition of the willing should be able to cough up enough F-35 firepower to be effective. And that doesn’t even count the USN, or USMC.

If QDR doesn’t figure this out or even consider it, they aren’t doing their homework. Some kind of reality of what the USAF will be capable of doing in the coming years based on its limited funds has to be considered. While USAF certainly has not stated a case for even having the F-35, one has to consider if their claim needing 1763 F-35s is even logical. The head of the USAF recently stated that number could be lower but certainly more than 1500. What one is going to do with 1500 very expensive fighter aircraft is yet to be seen let alone justified.