Links of Interest 1 Oct 2009

A new fiscal year starts today for the U.S. DOD. What will it bring? While considering that, take a look at some links of interest.

Australian Defence forces are going to Samoa to give humanitarian aid as a response to the devastating earthquake and tsunami. Australian Defence scraps the trial plan of using horses for northern ISR. In the U.S. some say "get off my lawn" to the Osprey after a Marine exercise allegedly did some yard damage. In Russia, the MiG-29K starts carrier trials. In one of the better sales jobs of the C-17, the first one setup for a Euro muti-national share does its first mission to Afghanistan.

Meet and Greet

Boeing and Mr. Combet have a chat.

“I thanked Boeing for the great performance on the Super Hornet project but also raised concerns about the progress to date on the Wedgetail aircraft,” Mr Combet said.

“Unfortunately, the Wedgetail Airborne program is currently more than three years behind schedule and there are some significant issues that remain to be resolved.”

“However, I am very pleased to see the efforts being put into this program by the Commonwealth and Boeing.”

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Too late for sound thinking

There are some good words here. The problem is that on the topic of a long range air power roadmap for the DOD, sensible leadership is MIA. Unfortunately, Gates and other top leaders are not capable enough to make these kind of decisions.

6th generation fighters? Hmmm don’t know. I would be prepared for a 6th generation price. And… I wouldn’t expect much out of refurbing the U.S. Navy’s legacy Hornets. I suppose anything is possible if you want to come up with some pretty damning flight restrictions on the aircraft forms.

Specifically, the U.S. should:
Purchase additional F-22s in 2010. Russia’s state-run military industrial base is focusing on producing advanced fifth-generation fighters with some nearly sixth-generation capabilities. Given the U.S. military’s global commitments, the 187 F-22s will likely operate in the different theaters, all but ensuring that they will be outnumbered in any potential engagement. Congress should appropriate funds to buy at least the full initial order of 286 F-22s to ensure air superiority over the next two decades, beginning with a purchase of 20 F-22s in FY 2010.

Encourage sales of F-22 allied variant to Japan and Australia. It would provide U.S. allies with the most advanced fighter on the market, increase their interoperability with U.S. forces, reinforce America’s hedging strategy in the Pacific, and keep the production line open while reducing the unit cost.

Research viability of building a strike variant of F-22. The FB-22 has a greater bomb load capacity than the F-35, could replace the F-15E, and carry out many missions currently performed by the B-1 and B-2 strategic bombers. The FB-22 could also then become a platform to introduce operational sixth-generation fighter technology. Congress should direct a Pentagon study on the viability of pursuing the FB-22 this year.

Immediately begin research and development of a sixth-generation fighter. Sixth-generation technologies may include a flying wing with morphic wings that deflect and minimize its radar signature and a visual stealth structure that would use micro cameras to take on the appearance of the sky and the ground to make it invisible.

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Links of Interest 30 Sep 2009

Two U.S. Navy Seabees and a Filipino Marine have been killed by a roadside bomb in the Philippines. Bill Sweetman has more about that F-35 schedule that involes Lightning II-speed blue-sky marketing combined with slow as molasses progress. Australia has taken its first delivery of the JSOW C. This precision weapon, while pricey, has a good reputation for performing in its earlier variants. This along with the software upgrade spiral for the Super Hornet will provide some great punch. In other Australian Defence news, there are some creative differences of how to approach procurement of a new fighting vehicle. And finally, can Indonesia remain stable?

Easily Fooled

When it comes to the F-35 Joint Strike Fighter (JSF) program, Australian Defence Material Minister Mr. Combet, is easily fooled.

During a visit to the Lockheed Martin production facility for the F-35 in Fort Worth, Texas, Mr. Combet stated that, "The visit has reinforced my confidence that the JSF is the right aircraft to meet Australia’s future air combat needs and represents value for money for the Australian taxpayer."

As any professional politician would, he gives himself an out.

Mr Combet said the 2009 Defence White paper confirmed that Australia would acquire around 100 JSF aircraft, but the government would not formally commit to buying until it was confident the JSF program was meeting cost, schedule and capability goals.

The F-35 program has some serious issues with its schedule. In U.S. fiscal year 2009 there were to be over 300 test flights. We have over 30. For fiscal year 2010, starting in a few days, there are to be over 1200 flight tests–plus the makeup work for fy 2009.

There are problems with meeting "milestones". In September 2008, the program published a schedule that was itself an adjustment to make up for a previous schedule with slips. The new schedule showed that several aircraft would have their first flight in 2009. This has not happened. Several of these aircraft have not been rolled out yet. AF-1 should have its (already late) first flight any day now. It was rolled out in December 2008.

The proof of short take-off and landing with the F-35B has stopped showing up on schedules. It has slipped several times and is scheduled for late this year. Will it happen? While not everyone is going to order the STOVL F-35B, everyone is effected by it because it has a huge impact on overall program health.

Mr. Combet conveniently punts to the recent Defence White Paper that was released as a proof of sanity for the F-35 and Australia.This paper itself is hugely flawed on so many levels. Using it as a reference is a credibility destroyer. And Mr. Combet has no choice but to punt to the government which has to make the decsion on committing money to the F-35.

Not mentioned anywhere is the fact that the F-35 is five years late for Australia. Recent news reports state that it may be 2017 before the F-35 gets its act together for an arrival in Australia. Many years ago when the Australian government jumped of the cliff with this high risk project, arrival was expected in 2012.

Maybe we will see some honesty or at least some awareness of the risks that are involved with the F-35 for Australian Defence. Given past performance of Defence procurement as a whole, things are not encouraging.

Combet, like others that have never been around fast jets in any real capacity, has seen the dog an pony show and in the end, is pretty gullible the seller of the aircraft now knows it. Faith-based marketing of expensive and risky weapons systems is a loser play. Since no one has a clue what the F-35 will cost, Mr. Combets comment of value to the Australian taxpayer doesn’t have a shred of proof to back it up.

Vacation

I will be away for about a week to the South Island of New Zealand.

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Timing

Iran has tested one of their big rockets. Although accuracy and what kind of useable payload you can put on it are another question.

Iran has test-fired its long-range Shahab-3 missile, the country’s state TV has reported.The launch comes one day after the elite Revolutionary Guards test-fired short and medium range missiles.

The Shahab-3 has a range of up to 2,000km (1,240 miles), potentially putting Israel and American bases in the Gulf within range, analysts say.
Iran is shortly due to hold key talks with major powers on its controversial nuclear programme.

Those talks – with the five UN Security Council members plus Germany – were given added urgency last week after Iran disclosed it was building a second uranium enrichment plant, despite UN demands that it cease its enrichment activities.

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The EFV Piñata

A good read that describes the sticker-shock experienced by the USMC while it is trying to figure out how to field gold plated weapons.

“The biggest capability is the capability to reach from ship to shore and follow-on objectives at a distance of 25 miles,” said Emanuel Pacheco, the EFV program’s spokesman. “In today’s environment, Navy ships don’t want to come any closer than that.”

So the threat is too dangerous for the ships that have a variety of defenses, yet somehow this floating target is going to get ashore. The EFV—should it avoid the procurement death spiral it is already in—will be the worlds most expensive piñata.

Links of Interest 28 Sep 09

They didn’t stand a chance?

Walsh new US Pacific Fleet commander

US Military: Drone crashes in no. Iraq

Russian bombers test high-precision weaponry during drills

Ask a Great Question; Get the Non Answer

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A look at DynCorp

DynCorp has won a contract to provide aircraft maintenance to the 80th Flying Training Wing in Sheppard Air Force Base in Whichita Falls, Texas. The deal is potentially worth up to $230m if all goes well.

DynCorp is a well known company that provokes aircraft maintenance and contract security to the DOD. Recently it won a $915m contract to provide aviation support services in Iraq for the Department of State.

While DynCorp has provided aviation services and support to the U.S. government for over half a century, things don’t always go so well.

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