The Affordable F-35

If you know anything about DOD procurement, the figures from a recent GAO report don’t mean much.

If you don’t know much about DOD procurement the chart could mean something. If you are locked in to unit prices when comparing these high profile weapons programs, the F-35 doesn’t appear all that expensive. As you can see, aircraft are killing our budget. The sticker price is what warships used to cost. And a buck doesn’t buy as much today. At any rate, it is hard to be in the game if your high-end aircraft costs less than $100 million each (no matter which procurement price method you use).

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GAO-Not much Grrrrrr!…for the Growler

The U.S. Government Office (GAO) has release a report on a variety of U.S. defense programs and their health. The results are what you would expect; lots of ill performance.

Some time back I wrote about the diet coke approach the Navy used to field the F/A-18G electronic support version of the Super Hornet. The Navy chose style over substance.

The latest GAO read (PDF) on the status of this program shows that anything is possible if you are willing to lower your expectations. Here is what they wrote.

The EA-18G was approved for full-rate production in November 2009, prior to deficiencies identified during operational testing being fully resolved. In operational tests, the Navy rated the EA-18G operationally effective and operationally suitable; however, the Director of Operational Test and Evaluation (DOT&E) found the aircraft to be operationally effective for most missions and not operationally suitable.

This difference can be primarily attributed to how the organizations accounted for the poor reliability of the ALQ-99 jamming pod. In addition, the simultaneous operation of the active electronically scanned array radar and the airborne electronic attack suite degraded the radar’s performance in certain situations. Despite these shortcomings, most aircraft were either procured or funds were requested prior to a full-rate production decision.

Technology and Design Maturity

All of the EA 18-G’s technologies are mature and its design is stable.

Production Maturity

We could not assess production maturity because the program does not collect statistical process control data. We have previously expressed concerns about the EA-18G’s aggressive production schedule.

The current EA-18G program of record includes 88 aircraft. A full-rate production decision was made in November 2009. The Navy has scheduled follow-on operational test and evaluation for spring of 2010 which will allow full evaluation of new software, as well as other actions to improve current suitability problems. Prior to the full-rate production decision, 56 aircraft were procured.

Funding for an additional 22 aircraft was requested in the fiscal year 2010 budget even though the operational test reports by the DOT&E had not yet been published.

Other Program Issues

The Navy test organization and DOT&E have reached different conclusions about the operational effectiveness and suitability of the EA-18G.

The Navy assessed the EA-18G as operationally effective and identified one negative warfighting effect—poor ALQ-99 reliability. It also rated the EA- 18G as operationally suitable but identified a total of seven major deficiencies. The Navy testers recommended fleet introduction of the EA-18G and noted that follow-on tests would be used to demonstrate that deficiencies had been corrected.

DOT&E’s independent assessment found the EA-18G to be operationally effective for most, but not all missions, due to the excessive time required to make reactive jamming assignments.

In addition, during tests, electromagnetic interference in some frequency bands from the EA-18G’s airborne electronic attack (AEA) suite degraded active electronically scanned array (AESA) radar performance. The Navy operational testers did not consider this a deficiency because the capability production document only required independent operations of the AESA and AEA systems. DOT&E noted this deficiency in their operational effectiveness assessment.

Also, DOT&E found that the EA-18G was not operationally suitable, due to significant problems with the built-in-test (BIT). A high rate of false BIT indications frequently led to a lack of aircrew confidence in the AEA system health, which can impact the decision on whether or not to take the aircraft on a given mission.

At times, the aircrews flew missions with real faults because the high rate of false indications led them to disregard BIT. The EA-18G also exhibited low reliability, due primarily to the frequent failure of the legacy ALQ-99 jamming pods and their newly designed pod interface units.

Tests also found that EA-18G aircraft speed was reduced when carrying the ALQ-99 pods and external weapons, limiting its ability to keep up with the strike aircraft it was escorting. The legacy ALQ-99 pods were not considered in the Navy’s assessment of the EA-18G. DOT&E further found that pilots in the two-person EA-18G have an increased workload versus the EA- 6B four-person crew.

In some missions the workload was acceptable, but the workload for performing radar and communications jamming for missions with modified escort profiles was close to exceeding aircrew’s abilities to maintain required functionality or effectiveness.
The Navy test organization and DOT&E recommended further tests to address deficiencies found in operational tests.

In late September 2009, the program started to determine if software upgrades were effective in correcting the EA-18G’s major deficiencies. The DOT&E report contained recommendations to improve the EA-18G and make the aircraft fully effective and suitable and increase survivability. They include upgrading the pilot tactical situation display to minimize aircrew workload management comparable to the EA-6B, upgrading hardware and software diagnostics tools, assessing the benefits of a threat warning system, and assessing the safety and performance benefits of adding higher performance engines to the EA-18G.

Program Office Comments

The program office stated the fleet continues to transition to the EA-18G Growler aircraft. The verification of correction test period has ended and the program office is awaiting the report of test results. The verification of corrections will be available prior to the first deployment of the EA- 18G.

Links of Interest 30 March 2010

Defence’s troubled Wedgetail airborne radar project nears completion
Bombe Surprise
U.S. Navy Seeks ISR, Strike UAVs
Why the F-22 and the PAK-FA have the “Right Stuff” and why the F/A-18 and the F-35 do not
Carter: More U.S. Programs To Get JET Treatment
China Testing Ballistic Missile ‘Carrier-Killer’

Carter said “it is a little embarrassing that you have to have a law passed to tell you to do something you should already be doing.”

Lets go feed the chooks

You can tell when Defence starts spinning yarns about F-35 price. This happens basically anytime they communicate.

Take for example this fairytale meant for the totally clueless. Funny as this got reported in the news yet a newsie did not research or follow-up. This is the state of the news media on this topic. What do those in Defence say before addressing the media? “Lets go feed the chooks“.

Here is some first rate spin…

Australia had examined the US figures, analysed how the prices of other aircraft projects had inflated and assessed the key factors which drove up costs.

“We put all those together and we always had quite a higher estimate than the US estimate for our provisions,” he said.

“Then we explicitly carry contingency on top of that for unknown risks.”

Sure; totally believable. So is this.

“It’s about $37 million for the CTOL aircraft, which is the air force variant.”
- Colonel Dwyer Dennis, U.S. JSF Program Office brief to Australian journalists, 2002-

“. . . US$40 million dollars . . “
-Senate Estimates/Media Air Commodore John Harvey, AM Angus Houston, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003-

” . . US$45 million in 2002 dollars . .”
-JSCFADT/Senate Estimates, Air Commodore John Harvey, Mr Mick Roche, USDM, 2003/2004-

“. . average unit recurring flyaway cost of the JSF will be around US$48 million, in 2002 dollars . . “
-Senate Estimates/Press Club Briefing, Air Commodore John Harvey, 2006

“. . the JSF Price (for Australia) – US$55 million average for our aircraft . . in 2006 dollars . .”
-Senate Estimates/Media AVM John Harvey ACM Angus Houston, Nov. 2006-

“…DMO is budgeting around A$131 million in 2005 dollars as the unit procurement cost for the JSF. .”
-AVM John Harvey Briefing, Office of the Minister for Defence, May 2007-

“There are 108 different cost figures for the JSF that I am working with and each of them is correct”
-Dr Steve Gumley, CEO of the DMO, Sep./Oct. 2007-

“…I would be surprised if the JSF cost us anymore than A$75 million … in 2008 dollars at an exchange rate of 0.92”
-JSCFADT Dr Steve Gumley, CEO DMO, July 2008-

“. . Dr Gumley’s evidence on the cost of the JSF was for the average unit recurring flyaway cost for the Australian buy of 100 aircraft . .”
-JSCFADT/Media AVM John Harvey, Aug. 2008-

Confirmed previous advice i.e. A$75 million in 2008 dollars at an exchange rate of 0.92,
-JSCFADT Dr Steve Gumley, CEO of the DMO, Sep. 2009-

” …about $77 million per copy.”
-Robert Gates, U.S. Secretary of Defense, Feb. 2008.

Carter-”I don’t know where to start”…

Pentagon says many weapon programs not performing.

“There are too many programs that resemble the Joint Strike Fighter in that they are not performing as promised or expected”.

The Air Force Association wakes up from their sleep. If these people can’t stand on a platform and state that F-22 production needs to continue, they are dead weight and contribute nothing.

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The sunset of U.S. air power

What to we have here?

With the PAK-FA T-50 we have an emerging weapons system program that isn’t running off and building hundreds of mistake-jets with no flight testing to back it up like the failing F-35 program.

By the time this aircraft gets in service, our few F-22s (120 or so combat-coded jets) will be getting old and the F-35 will be dead and buried.

These guys will build progressive prototypes of the PAK-FA series that will deliver batches of aircraft with ever increasing capability as time goes on.

It only has to have enough low observable capability to reduce the PK of the AMRAAM. Once that is done the F-22 will have its hands full and the F-35 if it ever shows would be dead meat.

The PAK-FA will reduce all 4th gen aircraft to platforms that will need an F-22 like capability to clear the way.

What is interesting to note from this video is that there are plans for the PAK-FA to have lower-band sensors and side looking cheek arrays to back up the nose radar and passive infra-red and radar sensors. Interesting as cheek arrays and infra-red were to be part of the F-22 (the empty space in the airframe is still there).

And T-50 will have 5 radars. 1 at the front, 2 on the sides with AESA, and a pair of decimetre wave radars at the wings.

Once Russia gets their act together with India, this will be exported to other nations. India if they are smart, will kill the MRCA competition. MRCA can only deliver obsolete aircraft as a solution.

The PAK-FA backed up with advanced area SAMs, AWACS and tankers, means that the U.S. better get used to not being able to do much power projection past the 2020s if not sooner. This type of aircraft system will also be able to deal with U.S. aircraft carriers.

Yet somehow, Gates and his merry band of sycophants don’t see a problem. All they have to do is look in the mirror.

An air power conference that isn’t

Why is the Australian Defence Minister Mr. Faulkner going out of his way to give a dismissive wave of the hand to F-35 troubles?

It is a good question to ask because the minister so far has shown a complete lack of understanding on anything; from the ridiculous defence white paper to thinking Afghanistan is a useful mission.

It gets even more embarrassing—yes Australians should be embarrassed about such a lack of leadership capability—when Mr. Faulkner believes the PowerPoint slides while Rome burns.

As for air power as it pertains to the RAAF, the air combat group will have a useable coalition fighter in the form of the Super Hornet, that will need something more powerful to protect it vs. some of the coming threats.

There would be no problem with this if the white paper stated directly; “Australia can not maintain regional air superiority against growing threats in the coming years with the current strategic thinking present in Canberra.” At least that is honest. One can as a minimum agree or disagree with that statement. It is simple and to the point. Instead we get spin and sophistry standing on a platform of groupthink.

As for Australia and the F-35 program; if you believe Mr. Faulker you can also believe in the tooth fairy.

“And by the end of 2010, the 19 test aircraft already on contract should be delivered to the flight test sites.”

9 months; tick-tock Mr. Faulkner.

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$3.2B- Archangel, Archangel…Will you be mine?

Note that for $3.2B, the RAAF could be well on their way to start populating the rest of air combat group with F/A-18E single-seat Block II aircraft.

If another Nelson gets into power, this will be easier to do than it sounds.

Operation Archangel is the Boeing international marketing plan for the Super Hornet. Sing along and substitute earth angel.

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Archangel,
Archangel
Will you be mine
My darling dear
Love you all the time
I’m just a fool,
A fool in love, with you

Archangel
Archangel
The one I adore
Love you forever
And ever more
I’m just a fool,
A fool in-love with you

I fell for you
And I knew
The vision of your lovliness
I hope and I pray,
That someday,
I’ll be the vision of your
Happiness

Archangel,
Archangel
Please you be mine
My darling dear
Love you all the time
I’m just a fool,
A fool in love, with you

I fell for you
And I knew
The vision of your lovliness
I hope and I pray,
That someday,
I’ll be the vision of your
Happiness

Archangel,
Archangel
Please you be mine
My darling dear
Love you all the time
I’m just a fool,
A fool in love, with you