So much for Operation: Lightning Strike.
None of the eight countries that committed $4.5 billion to F-35 development has placed an order for production jets, although Australia and Canada have said they plan to.
The U.S. and Lockheed would like to secure orders to help lower the production costs of new airplanes. Israel will buy 20, but those will be paid for with U.S. military aid.
Operation: Lightning Strike was a marketing plan from 2007.
Talks on a coalition buy modeled on the original European-US commitment for almost 700 F-16s has begun with the JSF partners. Lightning Strike would combine US and international purchases planned for the seven years from 2012 to 2018 into a fixed-price coalition buy potentially totaling more than 1,300 aircraft.
The economies of a coalition buy would avoid the disincentive to purchase aircraft early, he says, but would require the US government to commit to multi-year procurement in 2012. This is two years earlier than planned and before the F-35 has completed operational testing. “The F-16 found a way, and it worked,” he says.
2007 was an amazing time. So, so long ago.
“Flight testing is the last and most expensive way to find and retire risk.”
In 2015-2020 time frame, JSF will have so many credible rival, it’s not a competitive product anymore for a lot of potential export countries. On top of that european economy is shaky. UK and nether land won’t get out of budget funk in that time frame. And lastly US budget situation itself is very uncertain. It is not imaginable F-35 project will implode due to price explosion.
That’s a fair assessment, but I truly do hope you’re wrong. Sure, a block V F-35A being delivered to various Partner Air Forces today would indeed be a game-changing aircraft and one to respect. But that’s unfortunately not the case as the mighty game-changing block V won’t be IOC perhaps until 2022! Strategic assumptions and arrogance at it’s finest, unfortunately.
Surely, the block V F-35A will deliver as promised. But the time frame seems optimistic. Also, it is doubtful whether any nation other the US can afford the price for same.
It looks like Lockheed based its marketing strategy for the F-35 on the premise of elimination competition and then charging customers an arm & leg for minor modifications and upgrades. This was alright when the economies of prospective customers were booming & no questions would have been asked. In thepresent sscenario, can LM now afford to build a cost-effective fighter and support it at minimal cost to users at profit?
If LM fails to do it, no amount of spin will save LM brand ( due built by aircraft like C-130 and SR 70 Blackbird) from backlash of higher than expected costs in purchase and use. It will look like that LM had propagated falsehoods. The politicians and DOD staff, now suporting LM, will have no compuction to savage Lm to save their repuations and skins.
Has the LM management and board have studied this possible scenario? Prima facia, it doesn’t seem so.
That was a great analysis imo, anand. Interesting thoughts.
Under this scenario proposed, my thought is that LM might have no choice but to begin separating itself from the JPO office and actively protest as being unsustainable, the totally unrealistic expectations and demands being made for cheap aircraft as the numbers of aircraft being ordered plummet. I personally don’t doubt that if 3,000+ aircraft are being built on schedule, you could get a fairly competitive price per unit based on raw volume of sales. It’s not a bad theory and I can see how all involved could be seduced, but a major problem seems to be that as ‘show-time’ creeps closer and closer, the ongoing game of chicken (like death by a thousand paper cuts) causes increasing potential for irreparable catastrophe – on multiple strategic levels – than if they had killed the ‘Program’ years back and started over.
My gut feeling then is that we can start looking for some kind of LM ‘push-back’ on DoD once FY12 comes around, when reality of significantly reduced orders going forward can’t meet an affordable ‘fixed-cost’ scheme being demanded by DoD. In that way, LM could perhaps try and turn the blame on an unrealistic DoD at an unrealistically revised Program at the barrel of a gun. At that point (if not already), LM will probably be kicking themselves they don’t have a modern F-16XL ready to go.
The technical problems encountered in developing the JSF continue to occur which and will impact the IOC for all variants. Then there’s the number of partner nations diminishing by the day. This is going to elevate the price independent of what ever deal Lockmart cut with LRIP 4.
The other big shoe to drop will be the retirement of Gates next year. With him out of the picture the huge driving force for the F-35 will be gone in the DoD. The future of the F-35 will hinge on how development goes for the next year, and the attitude of the new Sec. Def on the progress of the program when they take office.
In any case, its certainly going to be entertaining over the next year to watch. It is to big to fail, or to flawed to succeed?